There are less than 40 days left in 2018. Winter is here, and people who make textiles and garments have the mentality of "worry about clothes and hope for the cold." But this winter is destined to be a little different for textile and clothing people. Even if the cold weather that textiles and apparel people look forward to in previous years comes, it is estimated that it will be difficult for textile factories to make a big improvement in the later stages.

After the National Day, I received a lot of calls from factory owners on WeChat. The bosses felt that the factory was not busy all of a sudden, and they were looking for orders everywhere. According to the market in previous years, this time period should not be busy. Under normal circumstances, the factory should still be catching up on double eleven. Is it possible that everyone will stop playing on Double Eleven this year?

Light industry manufacturing, textiles and garments are basically industries where most small and medium-sized private enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are engaged in industries. In the past two years, some cities have strengthened fire management, demolition, safety supervision, environmental remediation and other measures. The factory owner was forced to relocate or switch out of business.

For those who are still sticking to this industry, I thought that if some were eliminated, those who survived will definitely have a better life. But the current industry market does not seem to be optimistic.

Analysis of the reasons behind

1. The first half of the year has been stocked! Fabric traders dare not stock up in the second half of the year!

After the carnival in the first half of the year, there is a "chicken feather" in the second half! In anticipation of "a piece of cloth is hard to find", some apparel companies and traders began hoarding fabrics on a large scale after March. Coupled with the expectation of rising tariffs on foreign trade between China and the United States, foreign trade companies that originally ordered the purchase after September Orders are also advanced to August. There is a certain amount of fabric inventory from terminal clothing to traders. When the market's raw material inventory is saturated, it is conceivable that the main clothing and fabric traders in September and October will not dare After stocking up, the order placement will naturally slow down.

2. In autumn and winter, especially for down jackets, the cost of down and raw materials has doubled, so I dare not stock up!

In the clothing production process, clothing prices are directly related to raw material costs, production losses, labor costs, etc. With the improvement of the market in the past two years, related products including fabrics, accessories and other clothing products have ushered in a surge. According to clothing companies, At present, the cost of down has doubled. Down jackets are the main products in autumn and winter. The skyrocketing prices and changes in fashion trends in recent years have caused clothing companies to worry about the sales of down jackets in autumn and winter. Therefore, they must prepare low-priced inventory in advance or reduce them. Inventory, so the loss of orders for down jackets actually has a big impact.

In addition, it is not just down jackets. In the past few months, the soaring chemical fiber raw materials have caused the cost of enterprises to continue to increase. On the one hand, even if the price has fallen recently, there is still a lot of room for price increase compared with the price in the first half of the year. It is a difficult season for companies to receive orders. In the case of abnormal shipments and ridiculous price increases, the market rhythm has been disrupted, and traders are afraid to stock up!

3. Some are already buying, but there are too many stocks on the market!

You have to say that it’s unrealistic that the market hasn’t started. There are indeed signs of the peak season. Some clothing companies’ orders are still being placed one after another. But why do you look at the weaving factories’ orders or the raw material factories’ production and sales are so sluggish? In fact, in previous years, the off-season stocking and peak season sales are the norm, but the boom in the first half of the year caused traders to stock too much. In the second half of the year, September and October are the seasons for selling goods, when high stocks encounter big sales. , You can imagine!

4. The weather is not cool yet, warm winter is expected

As mentioned earlier, the high raw material prices of down jackets have caused clothing companies to dare not stock up. Another reason is that all textile companies are also looking forward to the weather cooling down. As soon as the weather cools down, the autumn and winter clothing sales will enter a new round of climax, but in contrast this year, there is not much cooling trend after the eleventh year. Textile people have particularly strong expectations for a warm winter.

5. Garment processing workshops are disappearing, and upstream grey fabrics are expanding

At present, the garment processing market is also undergoing a change of cages, including Qiaosi Town, one of the largest garment production bases in China, and Zhili Children’s Wear Town in Huzhou, both of which are undergoing rectification of scattered pollution, and most garment processing workshops will be eliminated in the future. , And most of these small companies supply e-commerce platforms such as Taobao. In addition, the suppliers of these companies are mainly some low-end conventional water spray products. Therefore, the renovation of clothing workshops has caused short-term terminal supply and demand imbalances.

On the other hand, upstream grey cloth fabrics are expanding. With the explosion of grey cloth production capacity and subsequent impact on the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets, it will inevitably lead to vicious competition back to the period of overcapacity. At the same time, the total number of looms in the country has increased, and there are no printing and dyeing plants, chemical fiber plants, and finishing facilities in the central and western regions. The gray fabrics produced will still be returned to Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions for sale. Because of its lower cost, it will have a greater impact on the Jiangsu and Zhejiang gray fabrics market. The current market competition is severe, and red flags of overcapacity are being induced.

6. The weakening of Sino-US trade and e-commerce market affects the economy, and terminal personal consumption power is weakening
At present, the new tariff imposed by the United States on 200 billion US dollars of Chinese imports has reached 10%, and may rise to 25% on January 1. The Chinese economy is beginning to feel pressure. As companies prepare to deal with the impact of US tariffs, China's manufacturing growth momentum is weakening.

In addition, the popular Double Eleven effect in previous years has also weakened in recent years. In the past few years, the e-commerce carnival season will drive the transaction volume of the fabric market, but this effect has gradually weakened since last year. The reason is that a large amount of funds have flowed into real estate in recent years, coupled with rising prices, especially the prices of clothing brands, leading to The personal disposable consumption of the terminal is decreasing, and the consumption power is weakening, and from this year's situation, the double eleven orders have not risen in large quantities.

For textile bosses, they are experiencing a cold wave in this peak season, which is unexpected to everyone. From the end of August to October, when looking forward to the arrival of orders, there are times when they fail. Looking at the increasing inventory, This is actually more worrying than stocks!

However, it is not only the order issue, but also the daily and weekly attention to the price fluctuations of raw materials. Every time I receive a notice of price increase, I am frightened, and I am constantly thinking: if the raw materials are gone, I must buy it, but this time it is really necessary. Up? Still tentative?

All in all, when the house cannot be sold, someone will help to stock up, but no matter how much inventory is in textiles and clothing, don't expect the policy to help you increase the price to sell the stocked clothing. A clothing boss said: Although the current list on hand can still be busy for two months, for people who have been in this industry for decades, I really feel a bit different from the back...